HCMC Luxury Real Estate, October 2026: Thu Thiem Accelerates as City-Wide Supply Tilts High-End

October 2026 is shaping up to be one of the busiest months yet for Ho Chi Minh City’s luxury real estate market, especially in Thu Thiem, Rach Chiec and old District 1 — three hotspots that advisors who have tracked this market since 2014 are watching closely on behalf of their clients. In under two weeks, the market saw a string of major events: a multi-billion-dollar project finally broke ground after years of delay, the city’s top leadership sat down directly with three major developers, and Ho Chi Minh City approved starting prices for a batch of public land plots in the new urban area. At the same time, market reports released at month-end paint a wider picture: city-wide apartment supply keeps tilting toward the high-end segment, even as overall liquidity turns more selective. Here is a roundup of the month’s key developments, with perspective for both end-users and long-term investors.

Thu Thiem’s unusually busy October

The month’s standout event was the official groundbreaking of Lotte Eco Smart City on October 23, 2026, after nine years of delay over legal snags — a milestone many experts see as a turning point for the whole Thu Thiem New Urban Area. Two days later, the Chairman of the Ho Chi Minh City People’s Committee held a direct working session with Sun Group, Masterise Homes and Dai Quang Minh to push progress on a cluster of megaprojects in Rach Chiec and Thu Thiem, signaling the city’s determination to get flagship developments back on schedule.

On the public-land front, the city kept accelerating its plan to auction land parcels in Thu Thiem. On October 20, it approved starting prices for three plots in the K3 zone worth nearly VND 14,575 billion combined, with the largest plot (over 10,000 m²) priced above VND 1 billion per m² — the highest starting price ever published for residential land in the area, more than triple the proposal floated back in August. Near month-end, the city also released pricing plans for three of five plots tied to 3,790 long-vacant resettlement apartments in An Khanh ward, opening a new path to resolve one of Thu Thiem’s longest-standing bottlenecks.

The city-wide supply picture: high-end dominates, absorption drops to 26%

While Thu Thiem kept making its own headlines, a report the Ho Chi Minh City Real Estate Association (HoREA) sent to the Government in mid-October 2026 — cited by VnExpress on October 28 — shows the same tilt citywide: high-end and upper-mid-range projects accounted for 73.6% of all projects eligible for capital mobilization in the first nine months of 2026, mid-range projects made up just 7.1%, and no new affordable housing project was recorded at all.

On pricing, CBRE Vietnam put the average primary apartment price across Ho Chi Minh City in Q3/2026 at roughly VND 75 million per m² (excluding VAT and maintenance fees), while DKRA Consulting gave a wider range of VND 32.8–520.3 million per m², averaging VND 68.5 million (VAT included). Notably, even though new Q3 supply reached 13,215 units across the city and nearby areas, Index.vn reports only 3,471 units actually sold — an absorption rate of just 26%, down 66% quarter-on-quarter. That points to buyers, particularly those relying on mortgage financing, weighing their decisions far more carefully, even as demand in the core areas has yet to really cool off.

Why Thu Thiem, Rach Chiec and District 1 keep leading on price

Looking at pricing by area makes it clear why capital from genuinely well-funded buyers keeps flowing into the central districts and Thu Thiem. Based on DKRA and Avison Young data compiled by Index.vn, primary apartment prices in the central area and Thu Thiem peninsula now range from USD 7,000–15,000 per m² (roughly VND 182–390 million), well above the USD 3,800–5,500 per m² seen in the East and South, or the USD 4,500–4,800 per m² recorded at one luxury project in the West. A more detailed breakdown of the price gap between these three areas was published in Inforealty’s comparison of luxury apartment prices across Thu Thiem, Rach Chiec and District 1.

The underlying reason, according to a JLL report released back in May 2026, is that most riverfront land in Thu Thiem was already allocated to major developers years ago, leaving new primary supply almost “frozen” since early 2026. Avison Young notes secondary prices have climbed two to three times above early-stage levels, with the main buyers being domestic investors, the ultra-wealthy, FDI executives, and upgraders moving from Thao Dien or Binh Thanh — a group reportedly willing to spend upward of VND 20 billion on a single premium Thu Thiem unit. That backdrop is also what’s driving Empire City to relaunch its Narra Residences zone, and Dai Quang Minh’s Sala urban area to resume sales of Sarene Residence and the low-rise Savila zone after roughly eight years on hold — both drawing genuine market interest. In old District 1, The Marq and Lancaster Legacy continue holding firm at VND 220–260 million per m², thanks to a land bank with almost no room left to expand — a scarcity advantage the old city center always carries.

Q4/2026 outlook: what’s the opportunity for buyers and investors?

One encouraging sign from HoREA and CBRE is that Ho Chi Minh City has resolved 723 of 1,338 long-stalled legal projects (54%), representing roughly VND 658,084 billion in related investment as of early September 2026, while also targeting completion of 13 social housing projects totaling 9,402 units this year. Still, Batdongsan.com.vn search data shows part of the end-user demand shifting toward the outskirts as inner-city prices move out of reach: the share of property searches in former Binh Duong province rose from 9% in Q1/2024 to 30% in Q3/2026.

DKRA Consulting forecasts Ho Chi Minh City and its surrounding areas could welcome another 7,000–10,000 new units in Q4/2026, but most of that new supply will still be concentrated in the high-end and luxury segments — meaning price pressure in core areas like District 1, Thu Thiem, Thao Dien and Rach Chiec is unlikely to ease in the near term, extending the exact trend already flagged in the earlier HCMC luxury real estate weekly for October 13–17, 2026. For buyers with genuine financial capacity and a long-term view, this remains a reasonable window to accumulate assets in projects with transparent legal status, reputable developers and scarce locations — factors that increasingly determine appreciation once new core-area land runs out.

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If you’re exploring luxury apartments, townhouses or villas in District 1, Thu Thiem, Rach Chiec or Thao Dien — from The Marq, Grand Marina Saigon and Lancaster Legacy to Empire City, The Metropole Thu Thiem, Eaton Park, The Privé, Palm City or Lotte Eco Smart City — reach out to a luxury real estate advisor who has covered HCMC’s eastern and central markets since 2014 for the latest sales policies, available inventory and an analysis tailored to your investment goals.

Sources:

• VnExpress – High-end apartments make up over 73% of HCMC housing supply (October 28, 2026)
• Index.vn – HCMC housing grows pricier as apartment absorption falls to just 26% (October 28, 2026)
• Doanh Nghiệp & Hội Nhập – Three Thu Thiem land plots carry a combined starting price of nearly VND 14,575 billion (October 20, 2026)
• VietnamFinance/Znews – Thu Thiem home prices climb: apartments at VND 215 million/m², landed homes at VND 567 million/m² (May 24, 2026)